Up down
On the web, I found a lecture by Mr. Jan Bureš from Patria Finance, given for the Foundry Association in the fall of last year.
What interested me in it? Above all, it confirms my opinion that for now it doesn’t matter if we heat the furnaces with electricity or gas, more important than the reconstruction of furnaces from gas to electricity are the savings. And as far as the carbon footprint is concerned, until the new nuclear power plant Dukovany is built (2036+10 years plan), our energy mix will continue to be around 390 gCO2/1kWh, as there is nothing technically available to fundamentally change this situation. And since natural gas is somewhere around 220 gCO2/1kWh, at least until 2036 there is no need to worry about gas-fired ovens from the point of view of the Green Deal.
Fig. 1 – Development of gas and electricity prices
But the situation is different in quantity. The above will only apply if the prerequisites are met:
- A sufficient amount of LNG will be provided
- At least 15% savings in gas consumption will be achieved
- Winters will be average in temperature
Fig. 2 – Share of Czech sectors in natural gas consumption
Fig. 3 – Simulation of natural gas reserves
If we do not achieve these savings, there is a risk that the gas reservoirs will be exhausted as early as June 2023.
And since more than 50% of consumption is at the expense of households and the public sector, nothing major will happen with consumption until the summer of 2023.
And what’s next in the message? It is implied here that if nothing really important happens, there will be a forced rationalization. What is meant by this? Well, they will simply shut us down .. I quote: parts of the production chain will be shut down and the entire production sector will be disrupted due to missing even small inputs.
And where to look for the savings? Good question but difficult answer. But about that next time.
January 5, 2023
Jiří Stanislav
