Heat treatment market in CZ and SK in 2021 – II

Fig.1 – Estimated size of the Captive and Subcontractors market combined – a total of 142 entities

On Fig. 1 shows the share of individual technologies in the total market in CZ and SK. In the total sum, the dominant role is still played by multi-purpose heat treatment with a roughly 50% share. The vacuum gives only an 11% share, which seems really little to me nowadays. Predictions are that it should gradually be 50%/50%. But it’s true, if I add LPC, LPN and plasma, then it’s not so catastrophic, even if it’s still only 19%.

Fig. 2 – Market size estimate excluding CVD/PVD and laser

But if I subtract PVD/CVD and Laser from the global market CZ and SK, then I get the structure of technologies, usual for commercial heat treatment plants (Fig. 2). Vacuum, LPC, LPN and plasma add up to 23%, but at the same time the share of SQ rises to 60%. This is a warning, because the FIT55 strategy will hit this sector the most, both from the point of view of energy savings and also from the point of view of the carbon footprint.

In the case of commercial heat treaters (Fig. 3) it is a little better, the vacuum gives a 20% share, in addition to the plasma 4%, and LPC and LPN then another 2%, a total of 26%. Even so, it is not enough, HIP is completely missing, and LPC is only as an additional technology. Czechmetal, Prikner, Medin or Sellier&Bellot with their oil quenched LPC furnaces are just a hint of things to come.

Fig. 3  – Estimate of commercial heat treatment for 2021, 28 entities

The figures on SQ’s share are alarming, as the FIT55 strategy will hit this sector the most, both in terms of energy savings and carbon footprint. According to a rough estimate, it is possible to imagine investments in new technologies with reduced consumption and minimal emissions in the amount of CZK 2.8 billion. This represents 140 new furnaces for the entire market. For commercial heat treaters, it is 39 new devices with an average purchase price of €800,000.

And how did I arrive at this number? Usually, the rule is that the value of the investment should correspond to the annual turnover. But in CZ and SK it is only 80%, maybe sometimes even less. In that case, for the entire CZ and SK market, the amount for SQ is 4.6 billion * 49%/0.8 = 2.817 billion. For commercial heat treatment plants, CZK 1,228 million *51% /0.8 = CZK 782 million.

If I register 28 commercial heat treaters in CZ and SK, then for one heat treatment plant it is an investment in the amount of CZK 28 million, or 1.4 furnaces at €800k.

Those are interesting numbers, but I have the advantage of being able to make things up. But time will tell how completely wrong I was.

January  30, 2023

Jiří Stanislav